Analysis: 10 percent jobless is Obama's new world
By JIM KUHNHENN
WASHINGTON (AP) - For months he had warned it was coming but
that didn't ease the political shockwaves for President Barack
Obama when unemployment topped 10 percent.
A year after his election Obama finds it increasingly difficult
to blame the sour economy on George W. Bush or offer reassurances
that jobless Americans will soon find work.
Never mind that the economy itself grew in the last quarter,
that the recession, as measured by the precise formulas used by
economists, is over and that the number of jobs lost in October was
less than one-third the number of job losses at the start of his
presidency.
Those claims about the recession's end do not convince people
who remain painfully aware of the unemployment rate.
At 10.2 percent, October unemployment climbed to chart-topping
heights unseen in more than a quarter century. The bottom line is
that more than 15 million Americans are out of work and 3.5 million
lost their jobs while Obama was president. Expected or not, this is
Obama's new reality.
``I won't let up until the Americans who want to find work can
find work, and until all Americans can earn enough to raise their
families and keep their businesses open,'' the president declared
Friday.
That's a hopeful promise but not very realistic.
And it shows that, for the time being, action to tackle record
budget deficits will simply have to wait.
Obama, appearing at the White House Rose Garden on Friday three
hours after the jobless numbers were made public, said his
administration was looking at additional spending for roads and
bridges and energy efficient buildings. Additional tax cuts for
businesses and steps to increase credit for small businesses were
also on the bill.
The new unemployment rate also came on the same day Obama signed
a $24 billion bill to extend jobless benefits and spur homebuying
In a sign of Democratic thinking, Rep. Carolyn Maloney, who
heads Congress's Joint Economic committee, said Democrats would
consider new aid to states, an ``infrastructure bank'' to increase
construction jobs and small business tax credits.
``I think we're witnessing a political renaissance about
concerns about jobs,'' Lawrence Mishel, president of the
labor-leaning Economic Policy Institute, said approvingly. ``It
will put the deficit concerns into their appropriate context.''
What all this amounts to is another stimulus for the economy.
Though don't look for Democrats to call it that; Democrats have a
tough enough time debating the merits of the $787 billion stimulus
Congress passed earlier this year.
Republicans were quick to pounce on the proposals. Internal
polling by the Republican National Committee after Republican
gubernatorial victories in New Jersey and Virginia showed that
Republican candidates could do well by arguing against additional
spending while promoting job growth through tax cutting alone.
But in rhetoric and in deed, Obama is being forced to address an
unemployment picture his economic team had long ago expected to
avoid.
Many economists predict the jobless rate will rise again,
peaking at 10.5 percent sometime next year before employment makes
a turnaround in the spring. That still means unemployment will
remain high for some time. The administration's own projections
still see unemployment at 8 percent by the end of 2011.
Such lingering discomfort can have economic and political
consequences.
Consumer spending likely won't increase rapidly. Foreclosures
will continue to rise, hitting not just subprime borrowers, but
prime mortgage holders as well. Commercial real estate lending,
already teetering, could plunge in the face of rising vacancy and
loan delinquency rates.
Politically, Democrats are staring at some damage - and the fear
of unemployment - themselves. Exit polls Tuesday in the New Jersey
and Virginia GOP victories showed that the economy was the top
issue in the minds of voters. And national public opinion surveys
show that a majority of the public doesn't believe Obama's economic
policies are working.
Couple that with traditional losses by the president's party
during midterm elections and Democrats have cause to worry about
their own fate.
The unemployment number masks the fact that job losses slowed
compared to past months - the work force went down by 190,000 in
October compared to 219,000 in September. What's more, the Bureau
of Labor Statistics said job losses in August and September had
been overstated by 91,000.
In addition, the economy grew by 3.5 percent in the third
quarter. And Christina Romer, a top Obama economic adviser, noted
an increase in temporary service jobs. ``That's often the first
sign of firms kind of dipping their toe back into hiring people,''
she said in an interview with The Associated Press.
But since the start of the recession in December 2007, 7.3
million Americans have lost their jobs and key sectors -
construction, manufacturing and retail trade - are still seeing
significant declines.
The president has not been helped by reports of flaws in the
administration's count of jobs created by the $787 billion
stimulus.
Ten months into the job, Obama did not even try to lay the blame
for the economy at Bush's feet, as he has in the past. His only
criticism was implied.
``When we first came into office, our immediate goal was to stop
the free fall that caused our economy to shrink at an alarming
rate,'' he said. ``We've succeeded in achieving that goal, as our
economy grew last quarter for the first time in a year.''
But Obama has already taken ownership of the economy.
Republicans, he noted wryly during a July speech in Michigan,
were eager to blame him for the economy.
``That's fine,'' he added, ``Give it to me!''
Four months later, it would be hard to give it back.
EDITOR'S NOTE - Jim Kuhnhenn covers economics and politics for
The Associated Press.
11/07/09 07:45
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